LAYING IT ON THE LINE – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  We like the Rasmussen polls because Scott Rasmussen surveys "likely voters," the people most likely actually to go to the polls. 

Rasmussen's latest presidential matchup emphasizes what the GOP must realize – that 2012 will not be an easy election.  The president, while politically unpopular, is still liked.  No specific Republican candidate has so far made the sale.

President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continue to run neck-and-neck in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the president’s support at 44%, while Romney earns 41% of the vote. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and another seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Given the margin of error, the two men remain basically tied. Romney continues to be the Republican hopeful who runs most competitively with the president

A week ago, Romney posted a 43% to 40% lead over Obama. But less than three weeks earlier, Obama led the unsuccessful 2008 GOP contender 43% to 39%.

Obama now leads Texas Governor Rick Perry, the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, 46% to 39%. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, another GOP hopeful, trails Obama by double digits. The president tops former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, a long shot for the Republican nomination, 43% to 35%.

The president continues to trail a generic Republican candidate in weekly Rasmussen Reports matchups, but he earns 39% to 46% of the vote against named Republican challengers. Despite those relatively low levels of support, Obama has never trailed a Republican by more than three percentage points and has enjoyed large double-digit leads in some matchups.

COMMENT:  This may tell us that the great electoral middle, the independents, are not yet convinced that any GOP candidate would do a better job than Obama, whom they've turned against in many polls. 

The Republican Party is not popular, and needs a presidential candidate who can rise above the baggage.  I can't deny a certain apprehension.  Next year's election will be one of the most critical in our modern history.  No party has ever had a better shot at turning out an incumbent.  But, as they say, you can't beat somebody with nobody.

September 21, 2011